Anders Puck Nielsen
Anders Puck Nielsen
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Russia's Kharkiv offensive – what is the plan?
Russia has launched an offensive into the Kharkiv region, and it has created a lot of alarmist news reports. In reality it is difficult to see what Russia's plan is, and it is not self-evident that it is a smart use of resources. In this video I discuss whether we might be seeing a return to the fragmented command structures that Russia had in the beginning of the war.
0:00 A new Kharkiv offensive
1:02 An unlikely vector?
2:03 Tactically significant results
3:03 Three levels of war
4:52 Can they take Kharkiv city?
5:09 A buffer zone?
6:01 A diversion operation?
7:39 What is the plan?
8:04 Russia might have a bad plan
9:30 Fragmented command structure
10:42 General Lapin
11:52 Balancing the generals
13:08 Newsletter announcement
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Переглядів: 198 002

Відео

Can Russia win in Ukraine with nuclear weapons?
Переглядів 233 тис.21 годину тому
The nuclear talk is back. Russia is again threatening the West with nuclear retaliation, but how close are we actually to nuclear war? In this video I discuss what will happen if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and I argue that it will more likely lead to Russian defeat than victory. But unfortunately that does not mean that we can ignore the danger of nuclear escalation as a result of ...
The role of smartphones in modern war
Переглядів 67 тис.14 днів тому
This video features a conversation with Matthew Ford about the influence of smartphones in modern war. The smartphone plays a huge role in Ukraine and Gaza, and it is something we have to get used to on the modern battlefield. Matthew Ford is a researcher at the Swedish Defense University. He is the author of the book "Radical War" and the article "Ukraine, Participation and the Smartphone at W...
What will Russia do when Ukraine gets more weapons?
Переглядів 311 тис.21 день тому
The American assistance package can allow Ukraine to stabilize the frontline, but we should not expect Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive anytime soon. The big question is what Russia will do if they lose momentum on the frontline. Most likely they will double down on bombings of Ukrainian infrastructure because that can help them achieve their strategic goals. 0:00 What will happen now? 0:20...
Is there an alliance between Russia, China, and Iran?
Переглядів 204 тис.Місяць тому
Recent events have caused new discussions about how Russia, Iran, and China work together to destabilize the U.S. led world order. But it's a relationship driven by interests and not common ideology. That is also why the most important reason why China and Iran support Russia's war in Ukraine is that it is disruptive - and not because they actually care whether Russia wins the war. 0:00 "A new ...
Ukraine's strategic bombing of Russian oil refineries
Переглядів 254 тис.Місяць тому
Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian oil refineries can become a big problem for the Putin government. By targeting fuel production, Ukraine is trying to make the Russian war economy collapse. I also discuss the U.S. opposition to these attacks, and whether it's legal to hit an oil refinery. 0:00 Strategic bombing campaigns 0:35 Ukraine hitting refineries 1:52 What a refinery does 3:21 How it hur...
What to expect from a Russian summer offensive?
Переглядів 366 тис.Місяць тому
Russia will probably launch a summer offensive to maintain momentum, and there is concern that the Ukrainian defense lines can collapse. But how bad can it get? In this video I give a status on the current frontline situation and discuss the perspectives. 0:00 Russian summer offensive 0:31 Current frontline situation 1:40 Reasons for Russia's momentum 2:46 The mud season 3:18 Scenarios for the ...
Was it a false flag operation?
Переглядів 157 тис.Місяць тому
The attack in Moscow is inconvenient for Putin, and it makes the Russian authorities look bad. Therefore they try to find a Ukrainian connection, but ironically the false flag theory is also helpful as a way to improve the narrative. 0:00 Conflicting narratives 0:40 Signs of a false flag attack 1:37 Probably not a false flag 3:20 The arrests 4:04 Finding a Ukrainian connection 5:15 Making the s...
Putin's "landslide" is a new totalitarian milestone
Переглядів 121 тис.2 місяці тому
Putin's election victory is a dramatic expression of the new political reality in Russia. There is no longer room for even the illusion of opposition. This is part of a project to prepare the population for war. 0:00 Putin won the election 0:30 Why does Russia have elections? 1:09 Works even in the West 2:22 Unusual numbers this time 4:15 A totalitarian turn 5:24 Preparing the population for wa...
Why are maritime drones so hard to beat?
Переглядів 458 тис.2 місяці тому
Russia has fired the navy chief because the Black Sea Fleet continues to lose warships. But the reality is there is nothing they can do about it. In this video I explain why maritime drones are such a difficult challenge. We should not expect that other navies in Russia's place would have performed any better. 0:00 Russian navy chief fired 1:01 A hard problem 1:35 Difference between the air and...
Information war against Russia
Переглядів 137 тис.2 місяці тому
There is a lot of talk about Russian information warfare but less about how the West can influence the discourse in Russia. In this video I argue that the West should not use the same tools as Russia, because we want to achieve the opposite results. I then discuss the role that UA-cam plays in Russia, and why Russian UA-cam channels may be worth supporting. 0:00 Intro 1:04 Russian information w...
What will happen in year three of the war?
Переглядів 255 тис.2 місяці тому
In this video I discuss an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario for Ukraine for the coming year in the light of Russia's current ammunition advantage. 0:00 Two years of war 0:53 What can happen in year three 1:38 Russia's current advantage 2:23 Future challenges for Russia's economy 4:11 Growing instability in Russia 5:23 Russia's advantage is temporary 5:58 Ukraine's active defense 6:36 The o...
How soon can a NATO-Russia war happen?
Переглядів 319 тис.3 місяці тому
It's a mistake to assume that the war in Ukraine must end before Russia can be a threat to NATO. This idea is built on a paradox, and it doesn't take into account the question of Europe's limited defense resources. On the contrary, a Russian attack on NATO could be a way to improve their chances in Ukraine. 0:00 Intro 0:24 Why Russia could attack NATO 1:54 Different time estimates 3:19 Why not ...
How to get Putin out on thin ice
Переглядів 183 тис.3 місяці тому
Tucker Carlson's interview with Putin has started a discussion about what critical questions to the Russian president would actually look like. Many western journalists get this wrong, because their ideas about sensitive topics are very different from Putin's. He would be absolutely comfortable with questions about war crimes. To get Putin out on thin ice, you have to ask about things where the...
NATO-Russia war: Can it really happen?
Переглядів 454 тис.3 місяці тому
Will Russia attack NATO in the coming years? In this video I discuss the recent warnings from military leaders and politicians, and I explain why the risk is bigger than many people think. 0:00 Possible war between Russia and NATO? 1:12 Wrong assumptions about a war? 2:46 Russia wants bilateral relations 4:23 Undermining NATO 7:01 A calibrated challenge of Article 5 8:06 A possible scenario 9:4...
Can Russia win the military production race?
Переглядів 311 тис.4 місяці тому
Can Russia win the military production race?
Why Ukraine can't provide a clear strategy to Mike Johnson
Переглядів 153 тис.4 місяці тому
Why Ukraine can't provide a clear strategy to Mike Johnson
Why is Russia bombing civilians?
Переглядів 196 тис.4 місяці тому
Why is Russia bombing civilians?
Ukraine shoots down multiple Russian jets
Переглядів 498 тис.4 місяці тому
Ukraine shoots down multiple Russian jets
The point of Russia's meat wave tactics
Переглядів 246 тис.5 місяців тому
The point of Russia's meat wave tactics
Russia on the offensive again
Переглядів 164 тис.5 місяців тому
Russia on the offensive again
How many people must die before it's a genocide?
Переглядів 79 тис.5 місяців тому
How many people must die before it's a genocide?
Ukraine's river crossing can change the war
Переглядів 214 тис.6 місяців тому
Ukraine's river crossing can change the war
Ukraine is losing the media war to Israel
Переглядів 80 тис.6 місяців тому
Ukraine is losing the media war to Israel
Forget about war fatigue: It will be a long war
Переглядів 144 тис.6 місяців тому
Forget about war fatigue: It will be a long war
How is the war going? - Early October 2023
Переглядів 205 тис.7 місяців тому
How is the war going? - Early October 2023
Is Ukraine running out of soldiers?
Переглядів 221 тис.8 місяців тому
Is Ukraine running out of soldiers?
Fear is the new normal in Russian politics
Переглядів 181 тис.8 місяців тому
Fear is the new normal in Russian politics
How many fighter jets does Ukraine need?
Переглядів 120 тис.9 місяців тому
How many fighter jets does Ukraine need?
Was Bakhmut worth it? - Reaction to Michael Kofman
Переглядів 143 тис.9 місяців тому
Was Bakhmut worth it? - Reaction to Michael Kofman

КОМЕНТАРІ

  • @panan7777
    @panan7777 45 хвилин тому

    Update. 05/19/24. You can add at least one more, if not two in past day. Second is not yet confirmed. We'll see in the coming days. Russian army is so backward it would be embarrassing for the third world country and they were bragging to be the second world power. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

  • @topweddingsa4059
    @topweddingsa4059 55 хвилин тому

    Keep quiet!!! Russia is winning against the collective West. 50+ Countries VS 1 Country.

  • @oneandy2
    @oneandy2 2 години тому

    Regarding your comments at 9:19, what you're describing is the "broad front" strategy and it can make sense if you have an overwhelming numerical advantage and the logistics to pull it off. Its not necessarily a bad plan... but I don't think Russia can pull it off.

  • @ozankutlu264
    @ozankutlu264 2 години тому

    Empire strikes back !

  • @scottl9660
    @scottl9660 3 години тому

    As a Yank I’m concerned that republicans won’t support foreign aid to Ukraine or won’t support foreign aid to oppose Russia. I’m not sure which it. No matter the why behind it , I’m very concerned that Europe may have to support this on their own in less than a year and I don’t have much faith in that either.

  • @immanuelkuhrt8508
    @immanuelkuhrt8508 3 години тому

    Regarding competing generals. Do we know how many generals Russia has left out of those they had before the invasion?

  • @user-oe2tt1hh8r
    @user-oe2tt1hh8r 3 години тому

    Bouncing back and forth... Donbas is lost... Goodbye

  • @Fuzzybeanerizer
    @Fuzzybeanerizer 3 години тому

    Putin has such a hold on Trump, he was absolutely confident that the USA would never send Ukraine more help. But Mike Johnson finally caved in to the pressure from sane people, visited Trump and informed him that the aid package was going to happen, and then made it happen. So Putin had been lining up troops to take Kharkiv later on in the summer, under the assumption that the Ukrainians would have no weapons and be easy to defeat. It would not take a huge force, under those conditions. Suddenly that was no longer the future, so the Russians moved more quickly to take whatever they could get before the weapons arrived. So there evolved a "Plan B" but "Plan B" was about 1% of what "Plan A" had been.

  • @martinchapman1038
    @martinchapman1038 3 години тому

    The reason for the assaults could just be the senseless and incompetent thrashing about of a Russian staff who don’t really have clue how to progress in this war…

  • @jeskg720
    @jeskg720 4 години тому

    Dont underestimate the russians, putin cant afford to loose this war.

    • @nobodyherepal3292
      @nobodyherepal3292 4 години тому

      Like he’s got any other choice but to either lose or leave.

    • @marianoaugustoormadtejejer5663
      @marianoaugustoormadtejejer5663 2 години тому

      ​@@nobodyherepal3292 I hear visiting North Korea is being recommended to Russians.

    • @nobodyherepal3292
      @nobodyherepal3292 53 хвилини тому

      @@marianoaugustoormadtejejer5663 probably so. There passwords at this rate are probably worthless

  • @damiencrossley7497
    @damiencrossley7497 5 годин тому

    New General making a name for himself, if he doesn't succeed its window or tea!

  • @noahway13
    @noahway13 5 годин тому

    Anyone heard from Gen.Serovikin? Is he working his way back up the ladder?

    • @nobodyherepal3292
      @nobodyherepal3292 4 години тому

      Probably more like, working his way out a window…

  • @privatebandana
    @privatebandana 6 годин тому

    Remember, we're still very early into this fresh offensive so it might not look like a buffer zone right now but it might in coming months, or not who knows. But I think it's a mix of point 2 and 3, the intent is to create a buffer zone over time and pulling ukrainian reserves and units from the eastern front. Also on this point 6:44 These troops Russia has in Kharkiv has not been pulled from the active front, these are fresh units with "fresh" hardware that were pretty much just sitting in those russians oblasts waiting and training. So Russia didn't pull any troops from the active front, which Ukraine did, even parts of their elite battalions. Regardless, only time will tell what the true intent was and if it was successful or not. It's impossible to draw any conclusions this early on.

  • @JUPITER44376
    @JUPITER44376 6 годин тому

    THIS MAN IS A PUPPET OF THE WEST THIS NEW FRONT IS HORRIBLE FOR UKRAINE THEY CAN BARELY HOLD THE LINE NOW ANOTHER FRONT AND RUSSIA CAN OPEN 5 MORE FRONTS ODDESA AND MORE.

    • @nobodyherepal3292
      @nobodyherepal3292 4 години тому

      How the are the Russians going to open a new front at Odessa, when they don’t have the fleet to support such a landing?

  • @3llipsis
    @3llipsis 6 годин тому

    amazing video Anders!

  • @fadya3901
    @fadya3901 6 годин тому

    Well I haven’t heard Putin say anything other than if Russia’s sovereignty is threatened there will be no nuclear strikes. So if you listen to him we should know how the end of our civilization happens. I am Swedish have been growing up being afraid of the Soviet. But Putin seems to be much more trustworthy than any of the western nations. You who are an analyst on you tube should know that..... I can only see two things happen Russia will win, Ukraine will be a puppet state. Or NATO will join the war. Then it will be very hot war likely nuclear.

  • @peterbreinervilsgaard2619
    @peterbreinervilsgaard2619 6 годин тому

    Tak for en rigtig god gennemgang og fremlæggelse

  • @jayduke8554
    @jayduke8554 7 годин тому

    Very helpful

  • @juliensorel5535
    @juliensorel5535 8 годин тому

    Putin has been explicit about when he would use nuclear weapons. When the French and the Poles started getting serious about sending troops to Ukraine, he told them that he would consider that a declaration of war. And he said that he would not just strike at the troops on the ground, he would strike their home countries also. I think that he must use tactical nukes if the West commits acts of war that are visible as such to the rest of the world. Putin has shown remarkable restraint. It is the West that has been reckless in pushing us toward WW3.

  • @classifiedsecret6383
    @classifiedsecret6383 8 годин тому

    Hopefully the Russians are like the guy who squirted warm water up his bottom - but it all went horribly wrong. He was his own worst enema. (Groan.) Seriously, though, thanks for such well presented and thoughtful analysis. Cheers

  • @christianayalacruz1095
    @christianayalacruz1095 8 годин тому

    "Misunderstandings of what tactical means"... yeah. When Ukraine has the rare win you call it tactically great and superior to Russian forces. When the Russians take over 200km2, you cope with "well, it depends on what you mean by tactical"... from the meat-waves bullshit this guy regurgitates (and which HistoryLegends pretty much destroyed) to pretty much a 90% failed analysis (based on the actual events and how they contradict what he says), why people still listen to this idiot is weird

    • @KaloyanKasabov
      @KaloyanKasabov 6 годин тому

      Russia has 3 times the people, 28 times the size, way more resources and the prestige of "being the 2nd most powerful nation in the world" before the war. Anything Ukraine manages to get above them will be treated just like any Vietnamese victories were treated over the US

    • @RobertMartin-ru2lx
      @RobertMartin-ru2lx 6 годин тому

      What exactly did he say that was wrong?

    • @nobodyherepal3292
      @nobodyherepal3292 4 години тому

      History legends also said Kherson should never all, Kharkiv in 2022 was a trap, Kyiv was a “feint” and Bakmut was going to end the war, so….

    • @AB-ys4yn
      @AB-ys4yn Годину тому

      Relax, his job is to push the NATO agenda. He couldn’t care less how accurate his predictions are. He’s job is to sound plausible that’s all.

    • @RobertMartin-ru2lx
      @RobertMartin-ru2lx Годину тому

      @@AB-ys4yn what exactly has he said that's wrong or inaccurate?

  • @GroteGeer
    @GroteGeer 8 годин тому

    Crimea is difficult in terms of distance and can no longer be used fully for Ru's military purposes. Then it makes sense to open a new front, straight on the north east border. #no #surprise

  • @MrLawandorderman
    @MrLawandorderman 8 годин тому

    Former soldier and you are the best od them all!

  • @edhargquest8710
    @edhargquest8710 8 годин тому

    Its strange that instead to be objective and neutral, military analyst try hes best to find only bad things in Russian army and to discredit any advancement or gains, and meanwhile be very silent on Ukrainians strategy and now for very long time been in defense, with very little prospect to start some offensive operations.

  • @waskus
    @waskus 8 годин тому

    Russia define succes like this: We only lost 90 out of 100 tanks…. Succes comrades

  • @jurajsmehil7534
    @jurajsmehil7534 9 годин тому

    Hey, Ander, it's operational < strategical < tactical, you got wrong the most important part :) Or does it differ from country to country? I don't think so, but I may be wrong.

  • @BalloonInTheBalloon
    @BalloonInTheBalloon 10 годин тому

    Hey Anders, maybe you're not quite the Nostradamus after all.. maybe you should consider starting a business with the other failed fortune teller Richard Kemp

  • @RichardsFrancis
    @RichardsFrancis 10 годин тому

    For Ukraine, this Kharkiv attack is a wake up call to restructure its materiel. To have non-western resources on the northern border and western materiel on eastern/southern front. Ukraine could the use its northern forces to cross into Russia without fear of US terminating supply as only non US materiel is used.

  • @user-ki4llalm6kr
    @user-ki4llalm6kr 10 годин тому

    Russia might have a bad plan but the current state of affairs is proving otherwise. By the way, you have a nice glow to you, mr. agent

    • @nobodyherepal3292
      @nobodyherepal3292 4 години тому

      You mean the “current state of affairs” that has Russia losing 15% of its oil Production over the course of a month, most of its Black Sea fleet, and close to half a million causality’s?

  • @jhwheuer
    @jhwheuer 10 годин тому

    The Russian Army does remind me of a horde of wild boars.

  • @Drakosayso
    @Drakosayso 10 годин тому

    Just another western well he’s not even western. He’s from freaking Europe, but all he’s doing is talking about propaganda. That’s not real.

  • @archniki_
    @archniki_ 10 годин тому

    План в том чтобы не обстреливали Белгород.

    • @nobodyherepal3292
      @nobodyherepal3292 4 години тому

      Well that failed spectacularly, because the FRL is still active there

  • @EL20078
    @EL20078 11 годин тому

    Anders, Putin is cautious and overly indecisive. Not sure about long game, but I see an "on-the cheap game", he is loathed to mobilize as needed to win decisively. Another 300,000 troops would tip the tide, yet he is loathed to risk it. He is playing it cautiously just like in Donbass in 2014.

  • @EL20078
    @EL20078 11 годин тому

    This is a buffer zone on the cheap. Putin has been fighting this war on the cheap and is doing the bare minimum. The Russians are on the offensive, yet they lack the skill and numbers to exploit anywhere. Putin wants to win by not mobilizing, as mobilizing will mean losing control of the narrative. The Russian plan is to slowly wear down Ukraine in the long run and by doing, as I said... the bare minimum. The Russians are playing it cautious as Putin rarely makes decisive decisions. Ignore Crimea, it was a one off opportunity and he seized it. However, further into 2014 he could have ended all this by seizing Donbass, yet he vacillated, he is the King of half measures. Furthermore, the forces in Kharkov would have been better used in the Avdiivka sector and on an advance to Pokhrovsk which is a key town, however, the Russians lack the skill it seems to exploit an operational level break through and they may be afraid of a repeat of 2022.

  • @patrick-hill-3000
    @patrick-hill-3000 11 годин тому

    The goal is to take Staryi Saltiw in order to weaken the Kupjnask Front logistically. Therefore to expose the northern sector as well. At least the Ukrainian Command suspects that. We will see if they are able to do that.

  • @cinghialemannaro76
    @cinghialemannaro76 12 годин тому

    it may be a way to leverage upon Russia's temporary manpower superiority? and how much of this manpower superiority is linked to foreign fighters, like people from Cuba, India and Africa enrolling in Russia's army?

  • @dlmdee
    @dlmdee 12 годин тому

    It actually hasn’t launched an offensive. The Ukrainian army is retreating from untenable positions due to overwhelming superiority in all facets of operational arts. This is how a military uses its superiority to constrict & suffocate an enemy without suffering high losses. It is how a sophisticated intelligent machine operates. Russian way of war. They have a general staff that uses sophisticated decision trees to accumulate information & defer to these constraints. The intelligence that is assembled is coalesced from even privates & non coms to understand actions & redesign more accurately the correlates required for further effectiveness in the tactical planning process. In other words all this is a training exercise as a managed war is won with the least destructive force possible. The diametric opposite of all western militaries & governments. Most will never understand a thing I have written. But then they are western minds with a sense of entitlement & no real understanding anyway

  • @billalumni7760
    @billalumni7760 12 годин тому

    If you have no idea what the other side's plans are, you are in a lot of trouble. That is the whole point about deception and Russia is running a master class on Ukraine, NATO and the US. Here's a hint, they have multiple objectives: they don't want the Ukes shelling the near border towns. They don't want the ukes cutting any supply lines in the area. They don't want the ukes anywhere near the new airport they will use for deep strikes into Ukraine. I am sure there are more.

    • @edhargquest8710
      @edhargquest8710 8 годин тому

      Kupiansk could be real target in these Kharkiv offensive, so that they came closer behind kupiansk and force Ukrainians to withdraw.

  • @berndhofmann752
    @berndhofmann752 13 годин тому

    As I saw German journalists they were too much overwhelmed by this assault! Strategic thinking is really missing!

  • @m-faccin
    @m-faccin 13 годин тому

    I think this might be an operation more for western media than for ground military objectives. Here in Europe we will have important elections and with nationalist parties (usually pro Russia) on the rise, the offensive plus the bad media coverage can give to these parties a talking point for stop supporting Ukraine because "clearly" is useless.

  • @nemo6282
    @nemo6282 13 годин тому

    An attempt at an analytical view of things, but Anders your obvious anti Russia bias shines through Couldn't watch past the half way point

  • @alexa.9446
    @alexa.9446 14 годин тому

    I tend to think this is the kind of wishful thinking that lasted throughout most of the Vietnam War.

  • @andreib2489
    @andreib2489 15 годин тому

    One explanation I did read about the goal of small-force offensive in Kharkov is to stretch the Ukrainian Army more thinly by opening another front. Perhaps forcing them to move units from other places. But under this theory there should be a follow-up move to exploit whatever place in the front that may weaken.

  • @tedpaulus
    @tedpaulus 17 годин тому

    If Anders were a properly well regarded military analyst from those in positions of power, then his perspective wouldn’t be freely spewed on UA-cam.

  • @tedpaulus
    @tedpaulus 17 годин тому

    Has this guy ever been right about a single goddamn thing regarding the Russia-Ukraine war?

    • @marcosvillela5042
      @marcosvillela5042 6 годин тому

      Just about nothing, he’s another NATO mouthpiece who lives in an alternate reality and makes these videos based on that reality.

    • @nobodyherepal3292
      @nobodyherepal3292 4 години тому

      Yes. Hes been right pretty much the entire time.

  • @disco1974ever
    @disco1974ever 17 годин тому

    Russia's Strategic Plan is to exhaust the UA Military ability to fight and they are successfully applying that strategy. UA is undermanned and underarmed. Russia's manpower and military equipment stocks are increasing. "We have no Reserves left" -Gnrl Budanov. There are now even seeing protest inside UA against the draft which is a criminal offense. Ukraine is drafting invalids and convicts while Russia's Army is achieving its recruitment targets through volunteers alone. Opening up new fronts will dilute it's defenses and force exhausted fighters who have been on the the front for years to stay in their trenches instead of returning to thier families and jobs. At this rate, the UA army will be too weak to prevent multiple breakthroughs, probably later this year.

  • @DrewNorthup
    @DrewNorthup 17 годин тому

    Given that a certain man running a country and named after his father has repeatedly demonstrated himself to be a master tactician with zero grasp of strategy, I would have to conclude that our host here is right.

  • @pseudonym745
    @pseudonym745 18 годин тому

    You also must have struck a nerve - everything is full of 'user-xyz Ruzzki - trolls' 😅

  • @Baloney108
    @Baloney108 18 годин тому

    "Maybe the russian plan is not very good" 😂😂💯💯

  • @pseudonym745
    @pseudonym745 18 годин тому

    JUST BRILLIANT! You do in 5 minutes what others couldn't in 5 hours. You really teach how to think for yourself. It needs a northern head to keep a cool one. Thank you SO MUCH!